Steve’s Weather Blog – 08/25/2016

Thursday, August 25, 2016

INVEST 99-L

Good morning, Coastians!

Let’s start on Invest 99-L with the latest observations from the National Hurricane Center. Here’s from this morning’s 0800 Tropical Weather Outlook:

“An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of
Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to
lack a well-defined center.

Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.“

Here’s the Rainbow infrared satellite loop through now:

MODELS

The reliable European model’s run from 0000Z this morning depicts a 1000 millibar low making landfall around Apalachicola, Florida on next Wednesday morning. Winds forecast by this model are progged to be between 50 and 60 miles per hour at that time – a strong Tropical Storm:

Here’s a plot of several models and their handling of the low this morning:

And, finally, some intensity forecasts:

MY THOUGHTS

Perhaps the best thing to state at this point is: there is no storm.

That sounds remarkably like the young ‘The One’ candidate in The Matrix Movie telling Neo, “There is no spoon.”

In this case, it’s not telekinesis keeping the storm from forming, but shear. With no low-level circulation being able to couple with an upper-level high to exhaust the heat energy, the storm can’t even get legs. And it is until the convective engine can get firing properly, intaking air unimpeded from around the storm and then being able to exhaust that energy over the top of the storm, that we’ll still be forecasting for something that doesn’t exist.

So, as of this writing, with uncertainty still abounding, I will advise you to remain diligent and congnizant of the latest on the system. We’ll be certain to pass along the official information and our own opinions about it. It is, of course, a good time to get the last of your preparations completed on your Hurricane Plan. Know where you need to be and what needs to be done to protect your stuff.

At this point, it is pointless to make a guess at what this thing is going to do. So, in tomorrow’s edition of the blog, we’ll hope to be able to give you some idea of this thing’s progress over the weekend.

At least, it would be nice if we are able to.

– Meteorologist Steve Taylor