7/20 – Rob Martin’s “Heat Peaks Tomorrow” Wednesday Evening Forecast

Pascagoula again led the way with a heat index (real-feel) temperature of 112° at noon before the sea breeze and its cloud cover cooled things off a bit.

The upper level high pressure will gradually continue to get stronger from west to east across the region. That and a continued low level return flow from the Bermuda high pressure over the western Atlantic should keep moisture flowing into the area. Combined these and heat index values will climb well into the 100s each afternoon. Because of this, a heat advisory is in effect today for our western counties, and may be needed again Thursday.

In the meantime another weak front will approach from the north Thursday, but stall out in northern MS/LA. It could pack enough punch for some isolated severe storms from Hattiesburg to Jackson tomorrow, with our area up to a 30-40% chance of garden-variety storms both Thursday and Friday.

But, models are in good agreement with the transition to high pressure occurring sometime over the weekend. The placement of the high pressure is also consistent in the models at it looks to set up over Arkansas. The subsidence of the ridging will lead to hot temperatures across the area that reach into the mid-90s inland. This will also knock weekend storm chances down to about 20%. The precipitation pattern over the entire long-term period is as typical as it gets for summer here. The rain will be diurnally driven with peak rain chances reaching into the 30-50% range each Thursday and Friday, down over the weekend, and back up to 30%+ for next week.