11/5 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Presidential Election” Tuesday Night Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

In the short term, Rafael is expected to strengthen to hurricane strength before landfall in western Cuba and then moving into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Beyond that point, the eventual track and intensity is going to be impacted by the strength of ridging between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF operational solutions have provided considerably different solutions, ranging from a system crossing our area in the models, with the European, keeping the system well offshore and eventually dissipating over the western Gulf of Mexico. The current NHC track is generally along the lines, but a little left of the GFS solution. The secondary question is how quickly southwesterly shear and dry air will weaken the system, with some guidance weakening the system to depression status before reaching the coast.