9/30 – Sam Parker’s “Warm Start” Monday Evening Forecast

Rain chances to increase toward the end of the work week as a weak front interacts with increasing moisture. Rainfall looks to arrive earliest on Thursday and last to Friday. NHC continues to monitor the western Caribbean for possible tropical development. The chance of development has decreased slightly to 40% (down from 50% yesterday). There is little confidence in any potential track or impacts associated with this disturbance, and large disagreements among model forecasts most likely continues until a more well defined disturbance forms. Therefore we urge you to ensure your weather information is from a reliable source focusing on official outlooks rather than any individual model forecasts.