6/4 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Severe Review” Tuesday Night Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

Drier mid-level air looks to filter into the area Friday, decreasing rain chances while keeping the boundary somewhere in the area. Scattered showers and storms are still possible Friday, but the coverage will be less than Thursday due to the drier air filtering in. The boundary looks to become diffuse by the weekend, so that will lead to a lack of low-level trigger for convection. With quality moisture still in the area with PW around 1.6-1.8 inches, expect a more summer-time isolated convective regimes Saturday and Sunday. Medium-range guidance differs significantly beyond the weekend with a potential front at the beginning of next week. The spatial and temporal aspect of the front seems very uncertain at this time, but that is not surprising given it is about a week out.