6/2 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Scattered Development” Sunday Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

Tuesday will be a very typical early June day across the forecast area. Zonal flow will remain in place aloft and widely scattered convection will develop along weak mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from previous convection as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A pattern change is then expected to take shape on Wednesday as a very strong northern stream trough deepens in the Great Lakes states. In advance of this trough, a shortwave ridge over Texas and western Gulf will extend more toward the forecast area, and this will help to cap off most convective potential on Wednesday. This will be due to the stronger subsidence aloft not only drying but also warming the mid-levels enough to produce a strong mid- level temperature inversion. Any updrafts will struggle to break through this layer of warmer air, and this will limit rain chances to a few showers during the afternoon hours over more inland areas where afternoon heating is greatest. Speaking of heating, temperatures will be much warmer in the lower 90s over inland areas and the upper 80s along the coast.