5/27 – The Chief’s “Remember The Fallen” Memorial Day Morning Forecast

An upper high pressure remains over Mexico but has been suppressed southward by a weakness extending from the Great Lakes to Texas. A cold front was just ahead of this weakness extending from the Great Lakes to near Shreveport to central Texas.

Dual concerns for today will be thunderstorms and heat related issues. Ongoing convection should be somewhat elevated, if forecast soundings are any indication. Low level winds just ahead of the band approaching the northwest corner of the area have become a bit more southwesterly, making us question the strength of low level convergence. Most of the mesoscale modeling has the western portion of the line weakening or dissipating prior to sunrise, with only scattered activity potentially impacting areas from McComb to the Mississippi coast prior to noon.

The boundary looks to become rather diffuse over the northern portion of the area later this morning or afternoon with very little in the way of low level convergence indicated by forecast wind fields. Diurnal heating is likely to be the main trigger if any convection is to develop. With forecast soundings indicating convective temperatures in the mid-90s by the middle of this afternoon, it is rather questionable as to whether convection will develop at all. If it does, strong to severe storms with damaging winds would become a significant concern with all the mid-level drier air available. Any convection that does develop should wind down pretty quickly after sunset.

The weakening boundary still hanging around Tuesday, can`t eliminate at least isolated thunderstorm development. Somewhat drier air should slowly filter into the area tomorrow, lowering heat indices somewhat, even though high temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 90s. The highs on the Mississippi coast may be a bit tricky depending on whether a sea breeze develops or not. If winds remain offshore, they could reach well into the middle 90s.