3/6 – The Chief’s “Dense Morning Fog, Then Lovely” Wednesday Morning Forecast

Dense morning fog will be a factor though late morning with a dense fog advisory in effect.  Tonight, sounding profiles are showing a strong tendency to radiation fog. The problem with this is a mid to upper deck of cloud cover will be moving in overnight. This does not mean that fog won’t develop, but fog will not be able to develop in locations that are cloudy. If there are some areas that the stars can be seen, then those areas would be favorable to see some reduction in vis. That’s only one of the many…many reasons that fog forecasting is incredibly difficult. Thursday will see southerly winds rise through the day bringing deep moisture back to the area ahead of the next system. Warm and breezy Thursday but will feel just right as temps max out around or just under 80f.

The next system will be a cold front that should move through Saturday morning. A prefrontal trough will develop ahead of the actual thermal gradient since the best lift and dynamic load will be associated with the upper/mid jet ahead of the surface front starting Friday. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, with all modes possible and the main area looks to be over the northern half of the area, but we will need to get closer to the event to iron this out. But new forcing moves in behind this front bringing it east of the area Saturday along with all the precip and storms with it. Some cool air moves in behind this front and efficient radiational cooling Sunday night will drop temps into the lower 40s. There could be a few upper 30s floating around as well. The start of the new week shows a surface low trying to start over the gulf and move NE.