10/13 – The Chief’s “Friday The 13th” Friday Morning Forecast

It’s a bit on the warm side across the region this morning. A low level thin stratus deck has developed, which is keeping most of the area from radiating out. I will keep temperatures nearly steady through the early morning hours. A very dry column exists above the moist layer. Any insolation after sunrise will help mix out this layer, so clouds should begin to dissipate relatively quickly this morning…leading to a very pleasant day across the region. The upper levels show an area of high pressure retrograding over the Caribbean and into the Gulf.

Eyes will then focus upstream as an upper level disturbance begins to amplify and flatten the high pressure to our south. This amplification will help bring a cold front through the region late tonight and early Saturday morning. Ahead of the front, the moisture quality is simply not there, so I have rain chances out of the forecast. As cold air advection sets in on Saturday, low level northerly flow will increase and a cooling trend will take shape by the end of the short term period.

The long term will start off with below average temperatures and dry conditions across the region. By Sunday, high pressure will move southward from the Missouri River Valley and into the southeast U.S. This should bring in a reinforcing shot of “cooler” air into the region. Low level flow will remain moderate with breezy northerly flow continuing into Sunday and Monday as a surface high pressure drops southward from the Dakotas into the Red River Valley and Ozarks.