6/14 – The Chief’s “Slight/Enhanced Severe Potential” Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

A disturbance in the overall pattern riding SE into the area will continue to bring a SLIGHT/MODERATE threat to the area into early afternoon. All forms of severity will be in play until the activity slides to the SE early afternoon. Another round of potential SEVERE WEATHER will once again be possible overnight.

We remain in a progressive quasi-zonal flow pattern parked between an area of high pressure over MX to an upper-level low over the Great lakes. With ample deep gulf moist feed north and a weak, yet subtle frontal boundary to our north, this is a rather good setup for multiple T-STORM COMPLEX’S tracking just to our north hence the SLIGHT to MODERATE risk across the northern area. Some clipping of our southern MS counties will occur as well as coastal SE MS would be in greater risk of being impacted, which currently has best rain chances.

The next round of widespread severe thunderstorms erupts across and near the AR/LA/TX region will move east across MS and AL in association with the front drifting east over the central US. Even beyond overnight into early Thursday, this weak impulse approaches us drifting ESE across the southern MS valley region. This may be enough lift to get multiple more rounds of showers and storms developing across central/southern LA and MS regardless of supportive diurnal instability. We could deal with a round of strong to locally severe storms overnight into early Thursday, especially if any remnant outflow boundary can set up near our area, which could even extend into the day on Thursday as we quickly grow unstable within this same volatile atmosphere.