9/4 – The Chief’s “Scattered Rain/T-Storms” Labor Day Morning Forecast
Confidence in the forecast/conditions continues to take hits as convection is just not developing like initially anticipated. Even with the arrival of rich low-level moisture and deep moisture already in place, a weak disturbance with even better surface convergence, and diffluence aloft the best we have seen is isolated to scattered with this feature as it moves into SELA. Models continue to try and show an area with greater convective coverage this morning but given the current radar image and the poor handling recently, this may not happen now.
Today most things point to a favorable day for scattered to numerous storms but again obviously current events are highly impacting the thought process. This should lead to much greater coverage of t-storms to our northwest. Then we have our current weak inverted disturbance that will continue to work east but between these two features western portions of our area may get squeezed and somewhere will end up paying likely not seeing much in the way of t-storms. Given the lack of rainfall we have seen and how much convection has struggled recently and this morning feel like staying on the lower side of guidance.
On Tuesday rain chances will be much lower drier air to our east will infiltrate into the region and the disturbance that was to our northeast will be lifting north and away for the region. The lower moisture to work with a lift leaving the region should keep things on the drier side. This will also jump start the warm up process and with mid 90s for highs across much of the region and it would not come as a shock if we saw isolated upper 90s highs on Tuesday.
castThe longer term portion of the forecast confidence is high in a HOT and mostly rain free forecast. Models have been very persistent and the trend has been slightly warmer over the last few days and given how this Summer has played out and the conditions the models are suggesting we will tweak the highs up in the typical problems areas like has been the case this Summer.
