8/26 – Brittany’s “Drier” Friday Evening Forecast
The boundary will lift tonight, and there will not be as much of a focus for rainfall that develops. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance warm air and moisture advection into the area, which will enhance instability over the area. PW values will remain high over the weekend hovering around 1.8 to 2 inches, which is above the 75th percentile for the SPC sounding climatology. Consequently, any rainfall that occurs will be efficient and have higher rainfall rates. Looking at the models, it will be “drier” over the weekend, but rainfall is still expected daily over the next few days thanks to the abundant moisture and instability. It just may not be quite as widespread, looking at model consensus. Overall, another rainy weekend, but with the chance of having some drier periods mixed in.
Monday through Thursday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern next week. Southerly surface winds will enhance warm air and moisture advection into the area, enhancing instability. Some weak upper level divergence will help to enhance lifting, mainly during the daytime hours toward the end of the week. PW values are hovering around 2-2.2 inches in the models, which is above the 90th percentile for the SPC sounding climatology. So efficient rainfall with higher rainfall rates will be expected next week inside of stronger storms. Looking at the models, rainfall chances will be enhanced all week with showers and storms possible daily, especially during the afternoon hours. Due to the abundant moisture and instability, locally heavy rainfall will be possible daily next week. The good news is that we are not seeing indications of any widespread flooding events. Mainly, stronger storms could produce isolated flash flooding, especially in vulnerable areas or areas that have already received a lot of antecedent rainfall. A strong storm or two may have the potential to produce gusty, subsevere winds and frequent lightning, but that would also be a more isolated occurrence. Overall, another rainy week next week is expected with the potential for locally heavy rainfall inside of stronger storms.
