7/21 – Rob Martin’s “Some Relief Tomorrow” Thursday Evening Forecast
The good news is that the heat peaks today and backs off a bit going into the weekend. The so-so news is that it won’t be by much. As of 2:30 PM, Gulfport had a heat index (real-feel temperature) of 109 degrees, and Pascagoula was at a steaming 113, certainly worthy of the heat advisory.
In the short term, expect some heavier showers to pop up into this evening before fizzling out.
Moisture flow values are normal for this time of year, but rain chances will be low today and tonight because of the high pressure and relatively weak vertical forcing and lift. Where rain does occur, though, there are chances for gusty winds associated with downbursts due to drier air in the mid-levels
Friday sees increased cloud cover and rain chances increase to over 50% as as storms activate south of a front to our north. It could actually be fairly active Friday morning this time, thus the increased cloud cover will help to lower the temperatures slightly, perhaps removing the need for a heat advisory. With the increased rain chances there is always the chance for localized heavy amounts that could result in some flash flooding. Model soundings show a less favorable environment for gusty downburst conditions, though.
The weekend is looking much like today, as high pressure re-asserts some dominance and lowers rain chances with cooler high temperatures, so again the need for a heat advisory will be evaluated as the period gets closer. We’ll still have consistent southeasterly flow both aloft and at the surface, feeding plenty of rich moisture into the area, and this will bump storm chances back up a bit early next week.
