7/13 – Rob Martin’s “Much Better Rain Chances Thursday” Wednesday Night Forecast

A relatively quiet Hump Day night is in store. Our current frontal boundary over the northern Gulf is rather diffuse, so an about-face here…we’re not expecting much in the way of rain tonight until 8-10 PM, when remnants of a daytime thunderstorm complex to our north clip Pearl River and Stone counties. However, it will be falling apart quickly by that time. Most of the night is looking quiet. But, there’s still heavy rain on the slate tomorrow.

Thursday will just be a continuation of diurnally driven convection, mainly focused along another frontal boundary that will sag southward across the area and converge with diurnal convection over the gulf. Very weak steering currents are very hard for forecast models to analyze, but there is a bit more of a consensus with the current trends.
As Friday night comes, the boundary should effectively be dissipated and subsidence looks to creep in from the ridge still situated west of the region. This should result in a drop in coverage and overall intensity. A very stagnant pattern looks to set up across the country for the remainder of the forecast period.
Once that front dissipates later Friday, we’ll return to more of a 30% chance of scattered storms over the weekend. Temperatures will also start an upward trend next week.