6/5 – Britt’s “Warmer” Sunday Evening Forecast

Tonight through Tuesday Night, a mid to upper level ridge axis will gradually extend eastward from Texas across the Gulf South through Tuesday night. The direct result from this will be an increase in subsidence and drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere through the period. As the airmass warms and dries, a strong mid-level capping inversion will form tomorrow and remain in place through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Sunday, the upper level ridge axis will continue to dominate the area on Wednesday, and this will keep the area dry and warm due to continued subsidence aloft. Temperatures should be slightly warmer due to the continued influence of the ridge, and highs could climb into the mid-90s over inland areas.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to develop on Thursday and continue through Sunday as the ridge axis breaks down in response to a deepening longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. A deep layer northwest flow regime will set up over the area, and a series of mesoscale convective systems will likely translate down from the Ozarks region into the Gulf South over this time frame. These systems will follow the theta-e axis that extends from the Midwest toward the Gulf South, and this axis is expected to be oriented in a northwest to southeast position. It is difficult to pinpoint timing of these mesoscale convective systems this far in advance, so a general 30 to 50 percent chance of convection is in place each afternoon. Temperatures should be fairly warm in advance of these systems on Thursday, and highs are expected to climb near record levels in the middle to upper 90s. Once the first of these features moves through late Thursday or Thursday night, an increase cloud cover should lead to slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s over the upcoming weekend. Lows will be little changed with values expected to dip into the lower to middle 70s.

 

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