6/3 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Humid Work-week” Monday Night Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

Tuesday, a second complex is forecast to develop over Oklahoma after midnight tonight and follow much of the same track southeastward. While most guidance doesn`t indicate this system reaching the area tomorrow, the recent runs of the HRRR have it reaching the area around midday tomorrow, and this does have the support of the ECMWF operational model. As has been the case for the last week or more, ridging to the west of the local area and troughing to the east, global models have struggled to agree. Timing of shortwaves and/or convective complexes lead to a low confidence in details. The operational ECMWF is the wetter solution for Wednesday and Thursday, then dries out for the weekend. The operational GFS is comparatively dry for Wednesday and Thursday, then becomes the wetter model for the weekend.