6/21 – Night Rob’s “HOT For Days” Tuesday Night Forecast

All in all not too bad of a first day of summer. Afternoon scattered storms and showers again put somewhat of a lid on the budding heat, but relief won’t last long. High pressure will build into the gulf in the coming days, extending toward east Texas. The result flow around it will actually develop an offshore direction, which at this time of year limits cooling effects off the gulf. It also allows afternoon temperatures to soar.

Subsidence increases locally which will bring rain chances back to a minimum, although they won’t be zero for Wednesday and Thursday. This will push heat indices over the heat advisory threshold of 108 from Wednesday to at least Saturday. Therefore, expect to see heat advisories for those days. This will be an extended period of, which tends to have cumulative impacts over time, so take precautions this week, and take it easy!

The high pressure will build closer to us Friday and Saturday. And this time It’s likely that the heat will peak in the Thursday-Saturday time frame, with highs 100+ for many locations. While Friday, am fairly confident we’ll see those highs right around 100 degrees, am less confident this weekend. Models have tended to over-extend the subsidence effect too long in these situations, and it’s a solid chance that effect will weaken over the weekend, allowing t-storms to develop again. The weekend will bring the best chance for relief from the heat with rain chances increasing to around 30-40%. We should cool down a bit after that.