5/3 – The Chief’s “Hurricane Preparedness Week” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Quiet conditions will continue as the warm and humid flow dominates. A more unsettled weather pattern is expected to take hold on Thursday and continue through Saturday. This pattern will be entirely driven by a strong disturbances pushing from the Plains towards the eastern seaboard. By Sunday, it is expected to build in from the with increasing upper level subsidence and a drier airmass taking hold of the area. All of the model guidance is in good agreement on the overall pattern High-pressure over the area Thursday morning will begin to shift to the east during the afternoon hours. As this occurs, a strong upper disturbance will push into the region during this period of time. Fortunately, the strong dynamic forcing associated with this and the overall severe weather threat will be displaced well north of the forecast area. Showers and t-storms will affect the area Friday into Friday night.

A brief period of weak high-pressure should develop over the area Friday night with largely dry conditions anticipated. However, the forecast on Saturday is a bit tricky. A deep layer northwest flow pattern should be in place, and there are indications that a minor disturbance embedded within this flow could sweep down from the southern Plains. This could bring a complex of t-storms to the area Saturday. By Sunday, strong high-pressure will be in full control of the forecast area. This will result in a return to hot and humid conditions with little in the way of cloud development. In fact, this will likely be the hottest day yet of the year with highs easily climbing into the lower 90.

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