5/25 – Rob’s “Tropical Watch” Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

The area remains on the southern periphery of an eroding area of high pressure. With no changes in the air mass today, precip chances will stay around 50/60%. Potentially even more impactful weather still looks to be over the Memorial Day weekend.

Model disagreement has improved somewhat but there is considerable difference in timing and placement of rain potential and TD/TS landfall.

One thing the models do agree on is that someone along the northern Gulf coast between Slidell and Tallahassee will see several inches of rainfall.

Sunday through Tuesday will likely be the best chance for heavy rainfall. A flood watch may be required but its too early for that with such high degree of uncertainty of this event. Building ridge west/southwest of the area and weak trough racing across the upper Mississippi Valley will force the tropical moisture northeast and out of the region around the middle of next week. Temperatures will bounce back into the lower to mid-90s.