4/9 – The Chief’s “Muggy & Often Windy” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Again today, we should see showers and a few t-storms around. But as we move forward in time, a few of these storms could become a bit more volatile as upper level support gets closer to the area. SPC has drawn the area in a marginal risk for today over the western portion of the state. This is due to two things, a more stable layer in the low levels to the east and a very weak disturbance over the western part of the area. With just a hint of better upper flow, the environment will be better suited to support deeper storms to the west. This all changes Wednesday.

We should see an area of t-storms begin developing near Laredo Tx around midnight tonight. These storms will be the main focus for severe weather over our area Wednesday as they move NE possibly crossing our CWA boundary around mid-morning Wednesday. There could be a few cells ahead of this main line as well and all variables that support severe weather will be available.

SPC has went with a moderate risk of severe in the main areas that look to be the most vulnerable but the remaining area will also be in an enhanced risk. The first main area with very strong support will move through first while another area gets started over the west central gulf and also races NE, this feature will mainly be a marine issue but some of these storms could move into SELA and coastal Mississippi by late afternoon/evening. Now the what, when and where have come together, or at least the best thinking has.

Rainfall rates with these storms could be quite high on the order of 4 to 6 inches per hour which could cause some locations to get a few inches within an hour causing some flooding issues as well. Winds will be strong enough to bring up a coastal flood advisory as well and with these winds over land 20-25 mph or higher with frequent gusts, with a wind advisory in effect Wednesday. The cold front will move through after dark Wed evening bringing all this mess with it and filtering in some dry cool very stable air.