3/29 – Rob Martin’s “Severe Storms Likely Wednesday” Tuesday Evening Forecast
SEVERE STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR WEDNESDAY. The entire forecast area is now in a category 4 (out of 5) for severe potential Wednesday evening and night. Rarely do we see that 4th category, let alone in all the way to the coast. Very strong wind event and severe weather potential is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night…
MAKE SURE you have ways to receive warnings even if power failure occurs.
The possibility of significant damaging straight line winds looks to be very favorable, and also the threat of locally heavy rain. The main thunderstorm line will arrive around 6 PM or so, but keep in mind that the winds ahead of that for hours (not directly tied to the storm line) will cause its own issues in the hours before.
Much like last week’s severe weather event with a cold front and Mid-level system working together as it moves through the region no later than Wednesday night. It will likely be out of the area around or just after midnight. That said the line storms we are anticipating could very well be faster than what we are currently showing due to how intense it could be as it races out ahead. Winds will be rather intense and COULD EASILY BE STRONGER THAN WHAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF LAST WEEK’S SYSTEM. There are indications that wind gusts ahead of the squall line Wednesday could approach 60 mph! This is around 40-48 hrs out and right on the outer limits of our window for issuing a High Wind Watch. As of now it’s a wind advisory.
The threat for severe weather is as high as last week if not higher but the one difference is this looks more like a damaging straight-line wind risk and wind gusts could be significant possibly greater than 74 mph! The cold front isn’t expected to move through until overnight Wednesday night but the prefrontal trough will be associated with the strong push about 6-9 hrs ahead of the front.
With all of this concern is increasing a rather impressive wind event with the squall line. The area that looks like has the highest potential will be along and north of the I-10/12 corridor through coastal MS. However, damaging winds are the primary concern and there could be significant tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is also a very likely potential. After everything is done by midnight or shortly after we should be quiet for the next two days.
