3/22 – Rob Martin’s “Severe Weather Likely” Tuesday Evening Forecast

Although there has been some severe weather to our north and west this afternoon, the main severe potential will arrive in our area from 5

to 11 PM, with all severe threats still on the table.

Looking at the main event, scattered to numerous showers/t-storms will move across the area this afternoon/tonight. All parameters seem to indicate forcing to any cells that develop ahead of the main line is lacking but there is opportunity if cloud cover can be eroded and enough heating can be achieved.

With the main support moving near and then north of the area, there is a good chance that some cells along the line will produce strong damaging winds and tornadoes, mostly likely north of I -10, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out south, along with damaging wind gusts.

PROBABILITIES: Damaging Winds 16%, Tornadoes 14% and Hail 11%.

The question again will be how many storms will produce with the stronger variables NW and north of the area, would not be surprised to see the highest risk areas shifted north a bit but still covering a large portion of the area.