09/10 – Rob Knight’s “Hot” Thursday Forecast

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Rain that occurred yesterday quickly dissipated or moved west out of the area before the evening hours last night. With that it has been very quiet and should remain so for at least the next 24 hrs. There has been a little surge of drier Low-Level air and this has allowed some interior locations, mainly across southwest MS and adjacent LA parishes to drop into the lower 70s.

The next 48 hrs could be a tale of two different scenarios but there is still some uncertainty mainly with Friday’s forecast. Today’s forecast however, looks cut and dry and yes literally dry. Much drier air is already infiltrating the area both in the Low-Levels and aloft.

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Friday is a little tricky. Models had backed off some on rain chances for Friday but latest thinking is that the easterly wave in the Gulf could push in now a little faster. The high-pressure will still be in place over portions of the Lower MS Valley and TN Valley. Across the area, moisture will increase significantly as the effects of that easterly wave will likely lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by afternoon especially across coastal MS and the immediate SE LA coast.

Impacts will increase into the weekend as the very deep moisture will move in over the area and this could be the beginning of multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain across the region. This is something that may need to be watched closely for as the flooding potential increases next week.

Previously a closed low stuck in the 4-Corners region, the upper low will be steadily tracking across the Northern Plains Saturday and race through the Great Lakes Sunday. As it does so, the extension of the Bermuda Ridge that has been keeping the local area in a period of lower convective coverage will be eroding from west to east. That means subsidence will be decreasing locally while at the same time, moisture influx will be on the increase.

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