2/24 – Rob Knight’s “Lundi Gras” Morning Forecast

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Two main concerns remain to be rain for Lundi Gras and lingering into Mardi Gras and then a strong cold front Wednesday. We will be dealing with a wet forecast to start but much of the area should be dry on Tuesday or by at least midday. The disturbance moving out of the Southern Plains will begin to quickly open up and dampen out while the surface low also begins to fill and slowly lift to the northeast. While this will send a cold front towards the region Monday night the push for the front will drastically weaken and it will significantly slow down as it approaches the coast Tuesday morning and may even stall just as it moves into the Gulf. This will provide good lift across the region much of the day and with increasing moisture there should be little issue getting rain to develop across the region. The northern half of the area could see widespread light to moderate. As for thunder, again instability looks quite limited but given the amount of lift and an approaching cold front isolated to scattered embedded thunderstorms should occur.

Rain will elevate tonight but continue to push east of the area. If the cold front can drive just far enough south we may see rain end by sunrise Tuesday but will hold onto to a small rain chance across the southeastern half of the area Tuesday. With the disturbance finally pushing east it will help to drive an Arctic cold front through early Wednesday and this will be a rather deep airmass. It will be cold and windy behind this cold front and Wednesday night still looks to be rather chilly. Even if most of the area remains above freezing the wind out there, especially along the coast could still make it feel like freezing. Thursday night will be more of the typical radiational cooling night along with the drainage sites that tend to bottom out so a few sites will likely drop to freezing this morning.