2/7 – The Chief’s “MUCH WARMER” Tuesday Morning Forecast

At the surface, high pressure was along the Atlantic Coast with an area of low pressure over western Ontario had a cold front to near Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas and on to the Texas Big Bend area. As onshore flow continues to become better established today, isolated showers will be possible in the marine regime. Warm temperatures in the low levels of the atmosphere will provide a cap to limit deep convection. Any rain amounts today will be light and brief in duration. Concern overnight will be the potential for advection fog near the coast with mid-60s dew points moving over water temperatures in the upper 50s. Question will be wind speed.

On Wednesday, the Four Corners disturbance will move eastward across Texas and taking on a negative tilt before it lifts northeastward. Forecast soundings show very dry mid-levels for much of the day on Wednesday, with moisture values on the increase. Instability does increase during the afternoon, and beyond 3 PM there’ll be somewhat better potential for t-storms. Any organized forcing will still be west of the area through 6 PM Wednesday.

The main concern during the forecast package will be during the overnight hours Wednesday night as a negative tilt trough and deepening surface low lift from Texas to Lake Michigan by Thursday morning. At this time, overnight convection will be limited due to nighttime stabilization and it seems like any significant threat of thunderstorms/heavy rain beyond sunrise Thursday will be either east of the area or limited to the coastal waters.

A secondary cold front will follow rapidly on the heels of the Wednesday night system, sweeping everything eastward Thursday night and Friday. I can’t rule out showers with that system, but strong convection and heavy rain are not anticipated over our area. Behind that system, much cooler/colder and drier air expected for the weekend. Saturday/Saturday night will see temperatures well below normal, with another light freeze possible.