12/21 – Rob Knight’s “Winter Begins” Tuesday Morning Forecast
The area of low-pressure is now along the NE’tern GOM moving ENE. Rain is out of the area but clouds will longer today as low-level moisture flow continues. Clouds will continue to break up and dissipate towards the southeast late this evening and overnight tonight, revealing mostly clear skies for all areas… but it`ll be cold. Next focus will be how soon surface winds can back off to allow maximized radiational cooling processes to take over. Still thinking winds should taper off later tonight/early Wednesday morning to get temperatures into the mid to upper 30s, but if winds are slow to diminish, temperatures may be slow to fall initially late evening before dropping off quickly after midnight and bottoming out around daybreak.
High-pressure will move in from the NW and shape the forecast through the remainder of the period. We cool down quickly again Wednesday night into Thursday, a tad warmer by a few degrees for western areas with surface high pushing just to our east.
A large area of surface high pressure will setup over Mexico early on Friday and drift east into the Gulf, dominating over the forecast for most of the extended period. This will turn surface flow to the south/southwest for much of the long term, which brings continuous warm air to the region. This will bring temperatures up above the climate norms for this time of year, a good 15 degrees above the norms actually. Christmas Day shows a good amount of the area with a good shot at hitting the 80 degree mark, with every area at least reaching the upper 70s.