11/7 – Trey Tonnessen’s “Tricky Rafael” Thursday Night Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

Hurricane Rafael continues over the southeast Gulf of Mexico tonight with ridging to the north of it. A large closed low was noted over eastern Arizona with troughing southwestward into the eastern Pacific Ocean. We can already start to see moisture being pulled northeastward across Mexico with this feature. The old frontal boundary that was west of us yesterday has retreated further to the northwest, north of Interstate 20, if it exists at all. Moisture associated with the circulation of Rafael over the local area is comparatively shallow, up to around 10,000 feet, but there is enough lift from surface heating to produce scattered showers this afternoon. Any lightning during the day today has been offshore. In this moist area, precipitable water values jump from about 1.5 inches to around 2 inches, which is pretty much at the climatologic maxima for early November.