11/18 – The Chief’s “FRIGID START To The Day” Friday Morning Forecast

After a cold start to the day, expect mostly sunny or filtered sunshine across the region through the morning and into the afternoon hours. Eyes begin to focus to our southwest this afternoon as a coastal disturbance just east of the lower Texas coast begins to sharpen. The flow will continues to align from SW to NE becoming a bit more active and helping moisten the middle and upper levels. Clouds should begin to increase tonight as this moisture plume aloft begins to arrive into the region.

Rain chances will begin to increase overnight tonight mostly over the Gulf waters initially. With the low level flow gradually increasing and a denser cloud deck over the region, radiational cooling will be more limited tonight so not nearly as cool for the region. This pattern holds into Saturday as the trough/weak surface low migrates toward the east. Models tend to suppress much of the moisture to our south, but enough low level lift and moisture will be present for rain chances across the area on Saturday with the higher chances residing along the immediate SE Mississippi Gulf Coast. Despite some warm air advection, the increase in clouds and rainfall will continue to keep temperatures generally below average through the short term period.

The upper level pattern will change slightly locally in Sunday with slight ridging aloft as broad long wave trough now to the east of the region lifts north and eastward. Temps will respond to this, but only marginally with highs still about 15 degrees below normal. Any precip from the previous day will be in the coastal waters and shifting southward. Warmer temperatures will move in Thanksgiving week along with increasing rain chances.

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