10/26 – Trey’s “Cloudy Conclusions” Noon Forecast

Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen

As the trough over the southern plains ejects off to the
northeast, it will take the surface low with it and that will help
to relax the pressure gradient, which will in turn lower winds
back down. Although winds will be lighter, they will still remain
elevated enough to keep fog development minimal Friday morning.
The ridge will still be in place over us, so expect much of the
same conditions as today, except winds slightly less than
Thursday.

As the low continues to eject to the northeast, winds will keep
backing down. There is a signal for higher fog potential Saturday
and Sunday morning as a front approaches from the northwest. With
the moisture pooling ahead of the front coupled with the weakening
winds, fog development seems likely. Current NBM probs are not
overly impressed, with the probability of <1sm being around 25%
for both nights. It`ll be interesting to see what the trend is in
that guidance as we get closer given that it is at the outer
fringe of the forecast period. Given the conditions, the probs
will likely increase. Of course, where there are fires, smoke
could mix in with the fog and create super fog, but details that
fine will be resolved much closer to the event. For now, it`s just
something to keep an eye on.

Model consensus is that the cold front will pass through the area
sometime during the day on Monday. Rain chances look hit or miss
with this frontal passage as models indicate that a pocket of
drier air above 700mb will be in place as it moves through. Temps
were bumped down for Monday night and Tuesday morning due to the
expected strong cold air advection behind the front. Otherwise,
expect cooler than average temps through the rest of the week.

As always: A cloudy day is no match for sunny disposition. Be nice to each other.

- Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen