10/24 – Brantly’s “Warm” Sunday Night Forecast

Some big changes to our weather pattern will take place this week. Dry weather prevails at least for the beginning of the week heading into Tuesday with high pressure keeping any chance of storms at bay. We begin to see modest return flow ahead of our next system sometime Wednesday late morning into early afternoon, and as such will start to see an uptick in precipitation chances as we go through the day Wednesday.

There is still some uncertainty in timing for this next system’s evolution, how deep it digs, timing of the occlusion of the surface low, and placement of key frontal features, but the general consensus between model guidance has led to a moderate confidence on severe potential Wednesday into late Wednesday overnight.

The biggest question that currently exists is the development of instability across the area. The warm front varies on how fast it progresses north, and likewise just how far inland it can get. This will have large implications on location of the open warm sector, and the region of greatest concern for severe weather. These details will hopefully be ironed out in the next 24 to 48 hours. Any storms that develop and progress across the area will be supportive of all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Once the front clears the area, only isolated showers may remain over the area through the day Thursday. In addition to severe weather potential, the beginning of strong winds will likely affect the marine and land areas Wednesday into Thursday, lasting into the extended period as well. Gale force gusts are possible in advance of the cold front, and in its wake over the marine zones, and strong wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible over land areas.

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