1/13 – Brittany’s “Finally Friday” Evening Forecast
High pressure continues to build over the area today and winds will gradually subside over the next 24 hours, at least over land areas. Very dry air has moved in as well and with dew pt temps in the upper 20s to around 30F, temps will be fully capable of reaching these numbers overnight tonight if fully capable of decoupling. Temps will warm if there is any wind capable of mixing down some of the strong inversion temp overnight. A ridge axis will move through the area Sat night into Sun morning. The only thing that will be noticeable will be wind direction changing from north to SSE. Overall dry cool conditions will remain through the weekend.
Temps will slowly warm through the first of next week and deep moisture return may hold off until late Monday. Mon night a cold front will move into the Texarkana region and lay into northern Mississippi before pivoting as it feels the draw from the next system getting started over the foothills of the Rockies. A line of sh/ts will accompany the front and once the front stalls, the line of sh/ts will continue to advance as a prefrontal trough. But since the line will lose its support and best lift, it should begin to decay as it moves into our area Mon night into Tue. The next cold front will move rapidly through Texas and begin slowing as it approaches our area next Wed but will have all the deep moisture supply it needs from the left overs from the pre-frontal trough that previously stalled over the area. This is also where synoptic model suites begin to disagree. The placement of the sfc low will be important for the unraveling of this scenario. If this low and associated kinematics lift out, it would cause the boundary to stretch and slow causing more of a rain issue. But if the sfc low moves into the Arkansas/northern LA area before lifting, it would be more of a severe wx possibly rain issue. Both of these solutions are given depending on which model one chooses.