1/10 – Brittany’s “Warmer” Tuesday Night Forecast

High pressure has shifted eastward and winds have already returned to a southerly direction. Dewpoints have been rising steadily throughout the day especially in western areas where a surface warm front has already moved well inland from the coast.

Warming trend continues during the day tomorrow, with afternoon temperatures topping out well above normal. NBM guidance seems to have adjusted a bit compared to yesterday and was already indicating highs in the mid to upper 70s so only a few minor tweaks were made. Some places might sneak a couple degrees higher than currently advertised, but with clouds in the forecast, just don`t have enough confidence in locations of the biggest breaks in the clouds that would allow me to target areas where the highs may need to be adjusted upward.

Moving into our next weather maker, a cold front will approach the area Wednesday night and move through the area Thursday as a long wave upper trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. The surface low associated with this system is forecast to move from the middle Mississippi Valley then lift northeastward toward the great lakes. With the surface feature being so far removed from the local area, best severe weather parameters stay to the north of the local area. Should still be enough forcing for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along/ahead of the front. While a few storms could become strong or even severe, the threat does not look to be widespread, and may also depend on where the line is when it can take advantage of increased instability due to daytime heating. Currently timing would suggest that this would be areas east of the I-55 corridor however, the current marginal risk area does extend across most of the forecast area at this time. The threat area will continue to be refined in future forecasts.

Once the front moves through, expect temperatures to fall quickly Thursday night as much cooler and drier high pressure again builds into the area.

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