09/12 – Brantly’s “Rain Chances Going Up” Sunday Night Forecast

 Deep tropical moisture has begun to move north through the area allowing for a return of showers and thunderstorms today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage as we move into Monday. The day for the most efficient rainfall will be Tuesday as numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Flash flooding will continue to be the main threat possible as we continue through at least mid-week.

Much of the extended forecast will rely heavily on the evolution of Tropical Storm Nicholas as it continues to track north/northwest through the Gulf. Nicholas is forecast to bring tropical storm forced conditions to the NE coast of Mexico and the coast south of Texas by tomorrow. It is supposed to become a strong tropical storm on Tuesday as it approaches middle Texas.

Although the forecast track remains west of our area, we will still see some local impacts here in SE Louisiana. There is a potential for some coastal flooding 1 to 3 feet above normal across Terrebonne parish, 1 to 2 feet from Port Fourchon to the Mississippi River, and about 1 foot above normal east of Mississippi River. There is also a slight risk for excessively heavy rainfall mainly for the far SW portions of the area on Tuesday and Marginal risk for heavy rainfall for the entire area on Wednesday; with locally heavier rainfall possible. Flash flooding and some urban flooding will be possible during these downpours of heavy rain.

Increased rainfall potential will keep daytime temperatures near the lower 80s each day. In the wake of TS Nicholas, the threat for excessively heavy rainfall will have decreased. With tropical moisture still lingering in the area, there is still a chance for some showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, but will be diurnally driven.

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