09/03 – Brantly’s “Clear and Calm” Friday Evening Forecast

 Quieter conditions continue through Sunday as high pressure remains in control over the area. The drier weather will likely come to an end by Monday and Tuesday as the upper ridge breaks down in response to a weak upper trough deepens across the great lakes and into middle Tennessee. This will allow for a surface boundary that we will call a “cool” front to sag southward towards the coast. Moisture along and ahead of the cool front will increase in response to the upper trough allowing for increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the area mainly along and north of I-10. Temperatures will remain around 90 degrees for highs but with dewpoints continuing to hover in the 70s, heat indices will range around 100 and a heat advisory will likely be continued into Monday. This will lead to continued heat stress for those who still do not have power and or performing storm cleanup.

Tuesday through the end of the week becomes interesting. Ignoring the feature expected to move into the southwestern Gulf by Tuesday. The main pattern will be driven by a second shortwave trough that will pivot around the larger upper trough discussed in the short term period. This will lead to another increase in showers and thunderstorms along the weakening “Cool” front. By Tuesday and into Wednesday this front will likely have made it to the I-10 corridor and possibly as far south as New Orleans. This will likely lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area with a focus along and and south of Interstate 10 where rain really is not welcomed.