08/26 Ryan’s “Hurricane Watch” Thursday Night Forecast
Ida's projected path remains close enough for a hurricane watch to be issued for South MS, but there's still a lot up in the air.
The disturbance we’ve been watching in the Caribbean has became Tropical Storm Ida today, and now a hurricane watch has been issued for South MS. It’s still too early for any responsible determination of landfall location, but models are trending too close for comfort. This afternoon’s center path was in Central Louisiana, though it shifted slightly east throughout the day. The biggest concern with this particular system is going to be its chances of “rapid intensification.”
High sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and ample moisture are all coming together to fuel this rapidly organizing storm.
That means it will likely be a major hurricane (category 3 or above) when it landfalls and could be quite large, so damaging weather may extend far from the center. We will continue to monitor, and update frequently. Locally our weather remains on the wetter, cooler side for the next few days, but will begin to warm and dry by the end of next week.