08/18 – Rob Knight’s “Less Humid” Tuesday Forecast

Deep layer troughing will dominate the Gulf South through Wednesday night. Strong dry air advection in the mid-levels will result in lower atmospheric moisture content and a very low risk of thunderstorm activity today. At most, an isolated shower may develop in a region of enhanced low level convergence along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts. The drier
mid-level airmass will allow for slightly lower relative humidity values, so heat index values will only rise to around 95 degrees.

A reinforcing front will slide through the region and push through the forecast area late tonight and Wednesday. This front will provide enough forcing to spark off some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through Wednesday. A risk of some strong to possibly severe T-Storms will be in play on Wednesday mainly due to dry air entrainment into the storms promoting an increased wet microburst potential. Temperatures will be warm with highs in the middle 90s expected.

The trough axis will continue to sit over the forecast area through the weekend, and expect to see a fairly similar pattern of convective development and near to slightly cooler than average temperatures from Thursday through Sunday. The convection will be diurnally induced each day, but continued weak forcing aloft associated with the trough and increased mid-level moisture will allow for greater convective coverage around 40/50%.