08/12 – Brantly’s “Scattered Storms, Watching the Tropics” Thursday Morning Forecast

 Daily highs have been quite steady from day to day, topping out in the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints in the mid 70s, should see heat indices in the low 100s to 107. Short term isolated timeframes of 108+ are possible but higher rain coverage should keep those instances to a minimum.

Going into later this weekend, the main focus remains on the future path of then Tropical Storm Fred entering the southeastern Gulf. Overall the model spread with this system is somewhat confident keeping impacts east of our area, but there remains several obstacles that may lead to a few tricks in the forecast. One, the placement and/or strength of the high pressure system over the Atlantic. Two, just how much land interaction weakens Fred in the short range as it tracks over the Greater Antilles and three, moderate to strong westerly shear that will exist throughout Fred`s track into the Gulf. These could all cause some slight deviations in the forecast track and/or intensity leading to a lower confidence forecast. While again, a track to our east is more likely based on current guidance and analysis, this system will still need to be monitored regardless.

Otherwise, elevated moisture content remains parked over the southeastern US underneath weak steering flow aloft. This will continue to support daily afternoon shower/storm chances going into the rest of next week. Glancing at forecast model soundings illustrate a very moist, tropical thermal profile daily with “warm” low to mid-level temperatures, likely reducing any severe weather risk to only a few strong storms and locally heavy rain the main risks.