07/22 – Brantly’s “Wet Weather On the Way” Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

Moisture flow will increase significantly through tonight lending to the potential for heavy rainfall with any particular cell. But the good thing is that all of this activity looks to be moving at a good pace so they should not hang out over any one location.

Thursday through Monday: There will be quite a variance dependent on the eventual development of tropical disturbance, currently moving into the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The upper axis should be passing through the forecast area Thursday with deeper tropical moisture in place for periods of heavy rainfall throughout the day.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed over the central Atlantic Ocean, breaking the record for the earliest “G” letter named storm. Previously, the earliest 7th named storm to form in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) was Gert on July 24, 2005.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently has maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is expected to continue gaining strength as it moves toward the Caribbean Sea over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center predicts it will strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday.

This system is small, which makes it more susceptible to drastic changes in strength. Smaller tropical storms are able to strengthen quickly, but they can also be torn apart by dry air or wind shear more easily. Beyond the next 3 to 5 days, there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to Gonzalo’s forecast track and intensity.

Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next few days. If it gains tropical storm strength, it will be named Hanna. Historically, the average date of 8th named storm to form in the Atlantic basin is September 24th.