07/21 – Brantly’s “Isolated Showers” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

The main short term issue is the easterly wave currently west of Cuba that is forecast to be over the western Gulf on Thursday. The NHC is maintaining 40% threat of a tropical low developing, but not seeing any model indications of major concern. Most effects from this wave will be felt over marine areas. That being said, however, locally heavy rain is certainly a possibility with the wave passage, mainly near the Louisiana coastline. Expect isolated convection today south of the area…scattered convection for Wednesday and Thursday primarily diurnally driven and likely on sea breeze boundaries.

Thursday, moisture values will increase quite a bit especially across southern portions of the area as the wave moves by. Expect significantly higher areal coverage of convection on
Thursday. Rain potential will be likely probabilities along the Mississippi/Louisiana coast north through the coastal counties. Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal for today and Wednesday, but will probably top out around mid-day before convection gets going. Better rain chances for Thursday should lead to temperatures remaining in the 80s for most areas.