07/06 – Brantly’s “Showers/T-Storms” Tuesday Forecast

Some showers and storms that develop through the day will likely be efficient rain makers. Additionally, with weak wind flow, storms will be very slow moving. This causes a concern for localized areas receiving brief periods of very heavy rainfall which could lead to urban/small stream flooding or very localized flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center does have our entire region in a Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall, which is threat level 1 out of 4, however, given the overall lack of continuous widespread rainfall, a Flash Flood Watch does not look like it will be needed. We will continue to monitor and update if necessary. In terms of severe weather, no organized severe convection is currently expected; however, precipitation loading could potentially lead to localized strong downbursts, especially during the day today and Wednesday around peak afternoon heating.

For temperatures, highs will be dependent on what areas maintain cloud cover, but generally mid to upper 80s are expected both today and Wednesday across the region. Not much change to overnight lows with around 70 well inland to the mid 70s at the immediate coast.

On the water, expect a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow today that will gradually become easterly and even sometimes northerly at times as Tropical Storm Elsa moves north into the Florida Big Bend region tonight into early Wednesday. As the storm lifts northeast away from the area late Wednesday into Thursday, a mainly light southwesterly flow returns to the marine area for the remainder of the week. As of now, the only impacts we are expecting from Elsa would be a slight building of seas to around 3 to 6 feet late Tuesday night through Wednesday due to increasing long period swell from Elsa, and some occasional strong winds/gusts that may occur with any thunderstorm development over marine areas.

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