05/11 Ryan’s “Not Bad” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

We mentioned in yesterday’s forecast today wouldn’t be “bad,” but we would begin seeing more cloud cover and less sun. So far today has progressed as expected, and as we head into the evening we’ll keep seeing the clouds, humidity, and instability increasing. This will continue until the cold front moves through Friday night, but the showers/storms will arrive much earlier.

The SPC has issued a “marginal” risk of severe weather for the Gulf Coast, and while little severe weather is expected, a few of these storms could be strong. The highest threats are gusting winds and small hail, while overall shear seems too low to allow for tornadoes. The first showers should begin showing up in the late morning, the strongest storms around noon, and “stratiform” rain for a few hours after that, but the drier air won’t begin moving in until early Saturday morning.

Mother’s Day weekend is looking warm, dry, and sunny with temperatures starting slightly below average and increasing slowly through the week, along with the humidity.