02/04 – Rob’s “Cloudy and Mild” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A broad area of high-pressure that encompasses the central portion of the country is steadily shifting east. Southeasterly wind flow will become solidified today with high pressure now east of the local area. Expect moisture levels to increase, with dew-points reaching mid 60s this afternoon. This should aide in the development of scattered light showers today.

Temps should moderate slightly again today as well. Overcast skies tonight will blanket the area and keep lows from cooling down much more than lower to mid 60s.

An upper-level disturbance will slowly dig south from the Rockies to Texas over a 48 hour period, beginning this morning. This slow process should give the local area ample time to increase moisture throughout the atmosphere.

As temps warm into the mid 70s, the atmosphere will destabilize and storms should become surface based before noon Wednesday. Based on the overall picture, this will be a damaging wind event with a few tornadoes possible. The Storm Prediction Center’s decision to expand the Slight Risk across the entire viewing area fits well with severe parameters noted above.

After the first wave of storms move through, a secondary wave of rain looks to impact the southeastern portion of the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The National Weather Service says they are watching the Mississippi coast more closely for a Flash Flood Watch potential as we could be seeing rainfall totals averaging 2 to 4 inches.

The rain will be ending late Thursday afternoon/evening as the main axis of the disturbance moves through. This should provide a weekend of pleasant weather with temps in the realm of normal temperatures for a day or so before warming above normal.