11/26 – Brantly Keiek’s “Warm and Humid” Thanksgiving Day Forecast

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Thanksgiving Day should see less rain and be continued mild to warm, but it won’t be an ideal day for outdoor plans as some morning drizzle and fog, and spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will be around the area with weak disturbances expected to ride along the more active subtropical jetstream over the gulf coast region. These disturbances will continue to move across the region through Saturday as a strong low pressure system moves through Arizona and New Mexico Thursday night through Friday night and then into the southern plains region Saturday and Saturday night. Increasing moisture combined will lead to higher rain chances and the threat of more widespread heavy rainfall from thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

Regarding severe thunderstorms, a marginal risk is currently forecast Friday and Friday night over mainly western portions of the forecast area, but that could impact a larger portion at some point going into Saturday. Portions of the region are also in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Friday and that risk is likely to persist into Saturday. Fortunately, most of the region has been rather dry before today, so the ground should be able to soak up the initial waves of moderate to heavy rain, so long as it doesn’t persist too long.

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A strong cold front will move through the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening as the low pressure system moves through. Our first real potent, polar airmass of the season will follow and bring much colder temperatures Sunday night into early next week. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in the 40s. Highs on Monday will only reach the 50s, then mostly clear skies and the cold airmass will likely lead to our first freeze of the season to areas north of the i-10 corridor late Monday night/Tuesday morning.