11/24 – Brantly’s “Chilly Morning, Warm Afternoon” Tuesday Forecast

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Many locations early this morning are starting off on the chilly side thanks to clear skies, calm winds leading to maximized cooling processes at work. We are on the path towards another gorgeous day today. We are starting to see more of an increasing Gulf return flow in the lower levels.  Models have hinted at the outside potential of a few light showers later this afternoon, but chances are low. Low-level clouds will be developing and increasing throughout the day, with better coverage to the west of South Mississippi over the Atchafalaya basin.

Looking quiet and not as chilly tonight, with some areas almost 15-25 degrees warmer than this morning! But by Wednesday, our attention begins to shift to the west at a relatively strong low pressure system moving east across the south-central Plains. Showers and a few strong and possibly severe storms will likely fire up along an eastward surging cold front from Arkansas, south to northern and central Louisiana early Wednesday morning and into the mid/late morning hours, with these storms steadily approaching our area.

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This next system is expected to weaken as it moves through the Gulf Coast, but there should be enough moisture and lift in the atmosphere to spark some scattered showers and storms along the cold front entering our Mississippi counties sometime mid-afternoon or late afternoon on Wednesday. How much storm activity we see will likely be dependent on how warm we get heading into the afternoon. Intervals of sunshine will help to make the atmosphere a little more unstable, which is more conducive for storms to develop. Regardless of whether we see strong storms develop Wednesday, expect to see some rain for the first time in a while. Rain chances will be at about 50 percent along the coast, 60 to 70 percent for our inland counties north up to around the Hattiesburg area.

Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday are looking warm and humid. We may see a brief pop up shower in the afternoon on either day, but rain chances are low at just 20 to 30 percent. Fog will be possible late at night through the early mornings due to the increased moisture levels across the region. Rain chances increased to around 50 to 60 percent for Saturday and Sunday. The moisture in the area will finally get cleared out by a strong cold front early next week.