Upper air analysis showed a disturbance axis from Hudson Bay to northwest Gulf of Mexico and west to southwest flow over Lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, Isaias is off the Florida east coast moving north. Surface analysis showed a frontal boundary from north Georgia to southwest Mississippi and a cold front from Lake Michigan to northeast Texas to west Texas. Initial moisture field shows moisture pooling along the cold front to the NW from central Alabama to Lake Pontchartrain to the northwest Gulf.
The trough axis and secondary boundary will push through late Monday. Dry air ahead of the front and main trough will push south diminish most rain chances today. We could still see a slight chance of rain on the Mississippi coast and around tidal lakes Monday afternoon. Dry air will stay in place over the forecast through the week. Northwest flow will bring in moisture and a chance of rain across the west half of the forecast area Wednesday through Friday.