07/14 – Rob Knight’s “Heat Continues” Tuesday Morning Forecast

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An upper level high-pressure that was centered over New Mexico/Arizona is starting to get suppressed southward by a broach disturbance pushing south out of Canada. This is also starting to weaken the eastern side of it over our area. It may not be evident today as high temps will continue in the mid/upper 90s but more so Wednesday. At the same time, precip chances are on the rise as subsidence aloft decreases and strong surface heating continues.

From a heat index perspective today, we’re off to a much better start than yesterday. So, with a better start to the day as well as increased thunderstorm coverage, thinking we’ll stay in the heat advisory 108-112 range today. The trend of slight improvements in heat continues Wednesday as a weakness on the ridge develops aloft. It may end up allowing for both morning and afternoon convection, hence the higher coverage. It’ll also break the 5-day streak of consecutive heat advisory issuances.

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Things continue to look like we will transition into a more typical summertime environment moving into the latter half of the week.