06/04 – Rob Knight’s “Warm and Humid” Thursday Morning Forecast

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A summertime pattern is in place through Friday. Southeasterly surface winds will help to enhance the moisture and warm air advection from the Gulf flowing into our area. High precipitable water values also indicate the potential for heavy rainfall during this period inside storm development. Upper level divergence will enhance some lifting in the environment as well, which is allowing for shower and storms to occur.

Also, daytime heating will enhance instability for these storms to form during the daytime hours. In addition, during this time period, Tropical Storm Cristobal will meander down near the Bay of Campeche. It is forecast to weaken initially as it interacts with Mexico, then strengthen gradually as it re-enters the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico.

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There is higher than normal uncertainty regarding Tropical Storm Cristobal beyond Friday. Saturday through Tuesday, Tropical Storm Cristobal will make its way northward toward the central Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to be to our area overnight Sunday into early Monday morning, however, the expected impacts will be seen before this time period. Regarding the tropical storm force winds, the earliest reasonable time of arrival will be Saturday night with the most likely time of arrival of tropical storm force winds being Sunday morning. There is also a potential threat of at least minor coastal flooding for our area due to the higher tides and persistent southeasterly flow.

The biggest concern currently for this Tropical Storm will be the potential for heavy rainfall. As TS Cristobal moves northward, rainfall amounts could exceed 10 inches in some locations, especially if there is any tropical banding that sets up over certain areas. This rainfall will persist from Saturday through Tuesday with a couple inches possible daily at least. Locally higher amounts are definitely possible as well.

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