5/29 – Rob Knight’s “Warm & Humid” Friday Morning Forecast

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Forecast focus is mainly on today as convection is the biggest concern. The old cutoff low has almost been completely absorbed into the developing pattern. As the low continues to merge with the northern jet stream, instability will be left over the area today and tomorrow until it finally moves east of the area Saturday. This will provide some lift allowing showers/t-storms to develop again today. It is this area where the best moisture will be in place along with the front and better convergence.

A few showers and thunderstorms will still be possible early tomorrow and remain possible until the trough axis finally moves east of the area. On Sunday the mid-level ridge will be building into the region and this will lead to a warm and dry day across the region. With upper ridge axis in place over the lower Mississippi Valley, large scale subsidence will likely suppress any convective development Monday and Tuesday. A back-door front of sorts, possibly enhanced by easterly wave dynamics, approaches from the east for some low end rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the ridging aloft will be an inhibitor. The ridge aloft flattens heading into Thursday, but low level Bermuda ridge extension builds into the gulf states to limit gulf breeze process Thursday and Friday. It would seem some token 10- 20 percent rain chances would still be in play for the near coastal areas latter half of next week.

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