Today and Wednesday should show precipitation numbers to be high, as models are trying to push the bulk of rain to the east of the area for Thursday. Numbers have been backed off from previous values, but will keep the whole area in 30-50% until this becomes a dominant trend. Some thunderstorms today and especially Wednesday could be strong to possibly severe and produce very heavy rainfall.
Although rain accumulations area wide are not large, some isolated locations could receive around 2+ inches with any training echoes in a short period causing flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas.
Winds will begin to ease today over the gulf waters causing tides to fall back toward more normal levels, so one more day of minor coastal flooding at high tide today and we should begin to recede. Temperatures should remain in the mid-80s or lower in most areas today through Wed because of the expected greater coverage of showers/t-storms developing earlier in the day. Thursday looks to be warmer if the area can stay in this dry trend.
The extended portion of the forecast will be a rather significant change from what we are expecting in the first 72 hours. Models have come into better agreement with the setup in the Mid-levels and it looks dry to end the weekend and begin the next week. The bad news, Summer may hit us like a ton of bricks early next week. Friday and to start the weekend the cutoff low that was over the Ark-La-Tex and moving into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley will already be opening up and merging into the developing disturbance over the eastern U.S.
We will still have decent rain chances Friday and possibly Saturday as this disturbance slowly works across the area. Moisture does recover for Friday and with the trough axis back to the west we should see broad lift combine with daytime heating and weak lake/seabreeze influence that will likely lead to scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms during the day. Saturday may be much the same.