Weak high pressure over the SE will continue to suppress the atmosphere and as a result, rain chances will remain low today. Winds will shift from easterly today to southerly this morning. These southerly winds will allow for moisture and warm air advection into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. The weak high pressure is expected to move eastward by Saturday. Saturday and Sunday, winds will remain southerly, fueling the influx of moisture and warm air into the region. In addition, weak upper level divergence will help to enhance buoyancy in the environment these days.
As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase Saturday mainly during the daytime and early evening hours. Sunday into Monday, a low pressure system is expected to move through our area, increasing the chances for thunderstorms and showers. This low pressure system will allow for some additional forcing, which when combined with the instability and lifting in the environment ahead of the system is expected to allow for the potential for severe storms in our area. In general, the main threats will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and potentially hail. Spatially, the chance of severe weather seems more favorable along and north of I-10/I-12. The intensity of this system, along with any chance for tornado development, will be very dependent upon how it develops over the next day or two.
After this system moves through our area, weak high pressure is expected to set up in the Gulf of Mexico, which would reduce rain chances for the beginning of next week. Looking at the models for the middle of next week, there is expected to be another low pressure system moving through our area that could bring some higher chances of rainfall again.